Pick Six: Week 10 - Talladega (post picks here)

If anyone gets all six correct, I'll double the prize to $50.

Good luck!

I would like someone smarter than me like Woody or Ray to calculate the odds of picking the top 6 at Talladega,I bet it's a really big number!you could give us the top ten last lap coming into the trioval and no one would get the top six

I'll take a stab at it if you quit putting yourself down as not as smart as others!

I'd say there are two distinct answers; one the pure mathematical answer which sees all drivers as equally capable of success and the other answer (which can certainly only be an 'estimated' answer) is the one that knows you, the picker, know some drivers have better chances than others of finishing in the Top-6, ie, you're more likely to put Kenseth on your list than Kvapil.

The way I'd approach the true mathematical odds is:

6/43 x 5/42 x 4/41 x 3/40 x 2/39 x 1/38 = 720/4,389,446,880

which breaks down to mean you'd randomly get it right one time in a little over 6 million attempts. (1/6,096,454).

My method above assumes there are 6 places your first pick of 43 possible drivers can finish (6/43) multiplied times the 5 places your next pick of the 42 remaining drivers would have to finish times 4 places your next pick of the 41 remaining drivers, etc, etc, etc.

Now, looking at the more realistic odds - the odds which factor in your knowledge of drivers, etc, it's harder. If you considered - just thinking in terms of average here - that the 'Vegas Odds' were given that several of the 'favorable drivers' have a 1 in 4 chance (I'm just speculating here) of finishing in the Top-6 then the formula would be:

1/4 x 1/4 x 1/4 x 1/4 x 1/4 x 1/4 =1/4096

I'm tending to believe that if 4000 of us made picks someone would get it right. Maybe several of us.

Da man nose his stuff.

Jordan wrote:

If anyone gets all six correct, I'll double the prize to $50.

Good luck!

Send money now,I'll hold it til i get 6.

WoodsRacing wrote:

I'll take a stab at it if you quit putting yourself down as not as smart as others!

I'd say there are two distinct answers; one the pure mathematical answer which sees all drivers as equally capable of success and the other answer (which can certainly only be an 'estimated' answer) is the one that knows you, the picker, know some drivers have better chances than others of finishing in the Top-6, ie, you're more likely to put Kenseth on your list than Kvapil.

The way I'd approach the true mathematical odds is:

6/43 x 5/42 x 4/41 x 3/40 x 2/39 x 1/38 = 720/4,389,446,880

which breaks down to mean you'd randomly get it right one time in a little over 6 million attempts. (1/6,096,454).

My method above assumes there are 6 places your first pick of 43 possible drivers can finish (6/43) multiplied times the 5 places your next pick of the 42 remaining drivers would have to finish times 4 places your next pick of the 41 remaining drivers, etc, etc, etc.

Now, looking at the more realistic odds - the odds which factor in your knowledge of drivers, etc, it's harder. If you considered - just thinking in terms of average here - that the 'Vegas Odds' were given that several of the 'favorable drivers' have a 1 in 4 chance (I'm just speculating here) of finishing in the Top-6 then the formula would be:

1/4 x 1/4 x 1/4 x 1/4 x 1/4 x 1/4 =1/4096

I'm tending to believe that if 4000 of us made picks someone would get it right. Maybe several of us.

With odds like this you might consider buying a lottery ticket at the same time you make your six picks...

I knew Woody would know!

I won't have a lot of time to play around this weekend, so I'll just post mine now..........
(got this right off the CDM research site)
#2,Keselowski
#15,Bowyer
#88,Jr
#29,Harvick
#78,Kurt Busch
#24,Gordon
Made one little change for 5th,they had D.Ragan,and just bumped Busch up a notch...
THANKS,
Good Luck All!

Unless someone backs out of the race before race day this is probably the one week where waiting til after practice and qualifying won't work to a player's advantage in picking the Top Six.

That being said, I'll most likely do just that anyway. lol

Earnhardt Jr
Ky Busch
Keselowski
Bowyer
Ku Busch
Burton

2---Brad Keselowski
15--Clint Bowyer
20--Matt Kenseth
31--Jeff Burton
29--Kevin Harvick
5---Kasey Kahne

Bowyer

Kenseth

Harvick

Kyle Busch

Ewards

Kahne

Thanks doc

20
15
2
29
16
88

1-johnson
2-edwards
3-boyer
4-kenseth
5-hamlin
6-kyle busch

Kyle Busch, Johnson, Bowyer , Edwards, Keselowsky, Kahne

29

20

27

18

1

42

Kenseth
Burton
Edwards
Kyle Busch
Biffle
Kahne

kenseth gordon johnson edwards harvick kahne

20, 29, 15, 88, 2, 16

18
29
14
88
20
15

15-Bowyer
29-Harvick
88-Jr
5-Kahne
20-Kenseth
24-Gordon

#29 Harvick
#2 Keslo
#20 Matt
#14 Stewart
#24 Gordon
#22 Joey

Bowyer

Keselowski

Earnhardt jr.

Johnson

Kyle Busch

Harvick