I can't see dropping one race.. problem with that is... if you drop one,.. then why not, or three... You get the idea.
In the purest form it should be most points all season, and not even have the Chase (It's all a "made for tv" thing)
After watching the Chase play out over the last couple year,.. yeah I tend to believe one race and you are pretty much out.
I'd say with it being Logano, an Jr being the ones who had issues. They are DEFINITELY out, - they just barely made it in the chase in the first place